Wood isn’t the problem
An abridged newsletter today, due to the international break. Here’s Nate with some thoughts on Burnley’s attacking woes. What do you think? Comment below!
Wood isn’t the problem
The numbers are ugly. Burnley’s five goals in the first seven Premier League matches to start the 2021-22 season puts the Clarets in a tie with four other teams for the second fewest goals in the league.
There is an optimistic side, however. According to Understat, the Clarets have created 8.25 expected goals (xG), meaning the Clarets have created more quality scoring opportunities than have been converted. That’s a good sign for Sean Dyche’s squad scoring more goals and picking up some more points as the season progresses.
However, there’s a pretty major caveat that should be noted, one that explains some of Burnley’s offensive struggles.
Well over half of the Clarets’ expected goals total, 5.06 xG, have come from dead ball situations. Just 3.19 xG have come from open play.
For context, last season the Clarets created 37.1 non-penalty expected goals, 24.72 from open play and 12.38 from dead ball opportunities.
Taking advantage of set pieces, especially with the quality of Dwight McNeil and Ashley Westwood’s deliveries, should remain a key part of Sean Dyche’s offense plan.
However, if Burnley’s attacking play is going to turn around, the Clarets will have to start creating more when the ball is in play.
Chris Wood has continued to put up similar numbers to previous seasons, though at the moment he’s slightly underperforming his xG (one goal scored to 2.35 xG).
Other than his small sample size underperformance, Wood is taking similar numbers of shots per game, 2.24 per 90 minutes, and is producing 0.34 xG per 90 minutes. According to Fbref, this is good enough for 23rd highest in the Premier League so far.
Basically, Wood isn’t the problem. It’s whoever he’s paired with up top.
Ashley Barnes, Jay Rodriguez, and Matej Vydra all rank below Ben Mee and James Tarkowski in terms of xG. Sure, playing time between the three has been split and, yes, the Clarets have created excellent scoring opportunities from set pieces.
Still, if Dyche is going to play two strikers, the other one has to be producing something. Not only does Wood lead Burnley in xG, he also leads the team in progressive passes received.
So right now, Wood is the Clarets’ primary option to receive the ball in forward positions, he’s also the primary option to try to finish attacking moves.
Coming out of this international break, we can only hope that Sean Dyche and his coaching staff have come up with a solution to get attacking production from someone else in the front line.
I’d still like to see Dwight McNeil given the freedom to roam as a central attacking midfielder, especially after Maxwel Cornet dazzled on his debut.
Whoever Dyche opts for as a partner for Wood, hopefully he has a plan to get them more involved.
He can’t do everything on his own.
Birthdays and anniversaries
Birthdays this week include play-off heroes Clarke Carlisle and Steven Thompson, who will be 42 and 43 respectively on Thursday.
Glen Little, definitely in my top five favourite Clarets ever, will be 46 on Friday.
Burnley haven’t played #OnThisDay since 1997, when Chris Waddle’s Clarets were 3-1 winners at home to Carlisle United. Gerry Creaney scored twice in that one.
Recommended reading etc
It’s so good to hear that Clarke is doing well. Make time for this article if you can.
That’s it for this week - back to normal next Monday. Comment below with any views or feedback, or if you have ideas for the newsletter, or want to contribute.