Magic Mike's Masterplan
Plus: Not dead yet
Two wins in four days has lifted us out of the bottom three - so how did we do it?
Magic Mike’s Masterplan
I don’t know if I am ready to anoint Alan Pace as some sort of 4D chess genius, but you cannot argue with the difference in results and performances under Mike Jackson.
Jackson has not done anything that revolutionary in terms of his plans - it is still 4-4-2 and our familiar two banks of four in a similar defensive framework - but far bolder team selections and a new willingness to keep the ball on the floor have been evident.
Not everything Jackson does works - Jay Rodriguez on the wing didn’t pay off at West Ham and it didn’t on Sunday - but seven points from three games speaks for itself.
The pleasing thing for me is how different the twin wins over the last week were. Burnley were outstanding against Southampton, creating plenty of chances and dominating the game. 2-0 flattered the Saints really - it could have been a lot more with Fraser Forster having a Nick Pope-esque performance between the sticks.
Wolves was more reminiscent of the wins we used to grind out under Sean Dyche. There was grit and determination in spades with players putting their bodies on the line. Clearly it was a horribly stressful experience watching the game on Sunday, but I almost enjoy ones where we have to strain every single sinew to get the points more.
Only conceding once since Dyche’s departure - and that was from a set piece by specialists West Ham - has restored the bedrock of our team. Nathan Collins gets more impressive by the game. We have to remember the lad is still just 20 years old. If Collins can add a yard of pace and improve his passing, he is going to go all the way.
Turf Moor is a fortress once more with three wins in a row in front of our fans, who have been so loud and proud of late. The atmosphere in the last three games has been a huge contrast from the horrendous collapse against Chelsea just a few weeks ago. Every challenge, every tackle, every interception is now greeted with a gigantic roar.
Listening to the players, there is no need to read between the lines to see they are enjoying themselves a lot more with Jackson in the dugout. Connor Roberts - his fine opener against Southampton could be the key turning point in our season - has made it clear he is relishing having more freedom to attack, as has a reborn Dwight McNeil.
I wrote before how it was ridiculous how Dyche made McNeil a scapegoat, seemingly giving up on getting the best out of our most creative player. Jackson has got McNeil back to the level that saw him linked with a £50 million move away not long ago.
McNeil’s ball to make the goal on Sunday was absolutely top class. To be fair to Wout Weghorst, who almost hit the corner flag with one shot and also shanked a volley in a display that was pretty up and down, the timing of his run and pass was excellent too.
Collins, McNeil and Roberts were all particularly outstanding in the two games but forgive me the chance to show off about being right for once. It doesn’t happen much.
Jack Cork, eh? Seven points from three games when Ashley Westwood had Covid. Cork is back in the team and it’s seven points from three games again. Coincidence?
Nobody has ever claimed Cork is some sort of world-beater, but it is so clear our team just functions much better when he is in the midfield. Most of us wanted Cork back in - one Twitter poll had 90% voting for a recall - and it was an obvious move for MJ.
Any questions about whether Cork’s legs have gone or not can be put to bed. Cork was everywhere on Sunday, with his presence again freeing up Josh Brownhill more.
Cork is not eye-catching and most of his best work is under the radar. Perhaps it is so under the radar Dyche forget how good a player with nearly 200 games for us can be. Nearly half of our points so far this season have come when Cork has played in a two.
Not everything is perfect. We started poorly against Southampton and the first half against Wolves was a hard watch, though they are a very strong, organised team. In both matches it seemed like we did not fully settle down until we scored a goal. But it is no surprise our confidence has been a bit fragile as we have struggled all season.
It is probably too early to make calls about whether or not Dyche’s sacking by Pace has been justified. Ultimately, Burnley still need to stay up and perhaps making that decision earlier would have had this impact weeks ago? Maybe a different interim manager would have produced the same upturn that Jackson has. We just don’t know.
But there has been a huge mental shift since the manager left. The players are happy. Magic Mike’s Masterplan is nothing too radical. Pick footballers. And let them play.
We’re not fucking dead yet
Pope’s rallying cry after the Everton win is ringing more true than ever now. Not only are we very much “not fucking dead yet” - the odds now say that Everton will go down.
We are out of the bottom three for the first time since October - a huge boost for us.
The nerds at FiveThirtyEight had us with a 59% chance of being relegated a week ago. Two wins in four days have turned that into just 27% and, if Leeds United lose on Monday night against Crystal Palace, that number will surely drop even further.
Tracking their data shows Burnley’s relegation chances have been hovering around 40-50% for much of the season. Personally I have felt for most of the campaign that our chances of relegation were worse than 50-50, but our games in hand skewed the data.
Now, of course, Everton actually have a game more to play than us. However, points on the board count for a lot and our matches, on paper, are far kinder than theirs are.
Mad results do tend to happen at this stage so it is perhaps daft to try to count points from the fixture list. But home games against Aston Villa and Newcastle United, two teams that have essentially secured safety already - though Villa fans might be feeling a bit nervous after taking one point from five matches - should be ideal opposition. After three wins out of three at home, we can go into those games with confidence.
Saturday’s opponents Watford have lost 10 in a row at home and they have almost no chance of surviving, sitting nine points adrift. Yes, we could not beat them at Turf Moor back in February, but we are now in the best form we have been in all season.
Dave’s Premier League points progression graph is also worth checking out. We are well ahead of where we stood in both of the relegation seasons we have had before.
I don’t get the perception from certain parts of the media that Burnley leave it late to get out of danger. Even last season when we finished 17th, it was with a huge nine-point gap to the bottom three. We effectively secured safety with five games to go.
In 18-19 when the European adventure affected our early league form, we were safe with four games to go, only dropping to finish 15th after ending with three losses.
Even going back to 15-16 and the first time we survived under Dyche, an April win at Crystal Palace left us solidly in 14th, eight points clear with three games still to play.
I feel like the Ed Miliband “it’s wrong, it’s just not true!” clip when people try to claim we are always producing some sort of miracle to stay up. We do not usually need one.
This year is different, of course, and for my money it would be up there with the most incredible Great Escapes in the league’s history if we complete the job with Jackson.
Podcasts and quiz question
Natalie is on the BBC more than Jermaine Jenas these days and you can catch up with some of her recent stuff via her Twitter here. I heard she is the new Doctor Who, too.
The answer to today’s teaser will be in the next preview show, which will be out ahead of Saturday’s trip to Watford, so listen out for that appearing later this week:
Rodriguez reached a milestone last week, when he played his 200th League game for Burnley across both of his spells at the club, but who were the opposition when he played his first ever league match for the Clarets, and what was the year?
Birthdays and anniversaries
Today is the 81st birthday of Alex Elder, who was a key part of the Championship-winning team of 1959-60. Elder made over 250 appearances for the Clarets and played 40 times for Northern Ireland. A true great. Happy birthday, sir. Neil Grewcock, one of our Orient Game heroes, celebrates his 60th birthday on Tuesday this week too.
Our record against Wolves is pretty good and, coincidentally enough, we beat them 4-0 #OnThisDay a year ago. Our best away performance ever in the Premier League?
Tweet of the week
Letters
Mark wrote in with his thoughts on the massive result against Wolves on Sunday:
A good hard fought win against Wolves - the first 15 minutes were tricky but when we got into our stride, we started playing well and became more galvanised. I thought Dwight had another good game, he was excellent, makes you wonder if Dyche was holding him back, he seems like a new signing fresh and up for it.
The whole team were fantastic, I'm glad Vydra got a goal finally as I think this will be his last season with us due to his contract being up in the summer - and wish him luck don't think he was good enough for the Premier League. I hope if we can carry on with the fight we've shown in our last three games, hopefully we will stay up but us in our hands now we've just got to keep bettering Everton's results.
Vyds is a funny one. He isn’t the most confident finisher or clear-headed player around but he has a habit of popping up in key moments. Set up the winner against Everton, then scored the only goal against Wolves. He is playing a big part for us.
That’s it for today - let’s hope we’re still out of the bottom three next Monday.
Thought of the day
What does Dwight have to do to get a standing ovation? Two insane performances!