Elite Westwood holds key
Plus: 0-0s aren't enough
This week's lead article comes from Nate and looks in detail at Ashley Westwood's importance. Data and stats come from before the Hammers game on Sunday.
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Elite Westwood holds key
Nate Gilman
Seeing Burnley’s attack get bogged down on one side of the field time and time again in the 0-0 draw at Wolves made me consider the absence of Ashley Westwood.
The Athletic’s Andy Jones clearly had similar thoughts, writing about what the Clarets miss without Westwood on the pitch last weekend. You should absolutely read Andy’s piece (£ - subscription required) but I wanted to dig a little bit deeper into what supporters know from watching week in and week out: Westwood might be our most important player.
I can’t imagine you’d have to convince many supporters of Westwood’s value on the pitch. After all, Westwood won both Player of the Year and Supporters’ Player of the Year following his 2019 campaign and his form has remained constant since then. However, I’m not sure most supporters realise just how good Westwood is, even compared to the best midfielders in Europe. When Sean Dyche doesn’t have Westwood, the Clarets’ lose their main source of passing into dangerous areas.
Westwood’s passing is elite. Not just elite for mid-table clubs, or even the Premier League: elite when compared to all midfielders playing in Europe’s top five leagues as well as European competitions.
Over the last year, Westwood is averaging 4.84 completed passes into the final third of the field, putting him in the 70th percentile of midfielders. Simply put, Westwood’s passing into the final third ranks him in the top 30% of midfielders in the top European leagues. His 1.88 completed passes into the penalty area is a 97th percentile mark for midfielders, an even more astonishing number since Burnley possess the ball in the final third so much less than other sides.
Offensively, Burnley's game runs through Westwood. This is obviously nothing new. Since the start of the 2019-20 season, Westwood accounts for nearly 20% of the Clarets’ expected assists, key passes, completed passes into the final third and attacking penalty area, as well as progressive passes. Westwood is truly the engine that drives Burnley’s attack.
So far this season, Westwood is averaging 4.75 passes into the final third and 1.58 completed passes into the attacking penalty area per 90 minutes. It should be noted that neither of those statistics account for set pieces, another clear strength in Westwood’s game and, so far this season, a main source of danger in our attacking play.
Westwood was conspicuous by his absence against Wolves. Without him on the pitch, the Clarets lack their player most able to push the game into dangerous parts of the field. Burnley missed a reliable option to switch the point of attack, managing just six switches during the match.
Unsurprisingly given he sets the team’s tempo, Westwood also leads the team in switches (defined by FBref as passes that travel more than 40 yards across the pitch) with 2.75 per 90 minutes so far this season.
See below for Westwood’s pass map from the next match against Newcastle United compared to Josh Brownhill’s against Wolves. Westwood’s willingness and ability to drop deep in possession and spray long, diagonal passes to teammates is unique for the Clarets. Brownhill provides a reliable, safe passing option in midfield but, at this point in his career, he doesn’t have the incisiveness to play a killer ball to a teammate in the box, leading to a chance.
Against Wolves, Brownhill ended the night with some Westwood-esque numbers: nine passes into the final third and eight progressive passes, but he rarely broke defensive lines with those passes. Westwood’s ability on the ball allows Burnley to find weaknesses in opposing defences and to get wide players into dangerous positions against unsettled defences. This can be very valuable when the Clarets decide to counter-attack, especially with the added pace of Maxwel Cornet playing as a striker alongside Chris Wood. Allowing Westwood to quarterback from deep also lets Dwight McNeil and Johann Gudmundsson find space to exploit on the break wide, as well as opportunities for Cornet and Wood centrally.
In cases where the Clarets look to build out of the back, Westwood’s reliability in finding the right pass up the field is second to none. However, given Westwood’s proficiency in finding passes into the penalty area, Burnley face another issue.
Because he’s so often passing the ball from Burnley’s defensive half into the final third, it’s harder for Westwood to also be the one making the pass unlocking a defence in and around the box because, even for how much ground he covers in a game, he just cannot be in two places at once.
Figuring out how to maintain possession in the final third until Westwood can catch up to the play could be one option. McNeil finding his feet as a playmaker in more central positions could be another, though he has not excelled in that role so far.
Regardless of if tactical tweaks are coming from Dyche to optimise Westwood, Burnley supporters should enjoy his midfield play, but especially his passing. He’s off the radar of most football fans but that shouldn’t diminish the joy we have watching a truly elite passer of the ball in Claret and Blue.
0-0s aren't enough
Jamie Smith
In isolation, our 0-0 draws against good teams like Wolves and West Ham are OK results, especially considering the defensive issues we have had this season. Clean sheets are always welcome and they provide a necessary platform for a solid foundation.
Defensive solidity has always been at the heart of Dyche’s Burnley but without the injured Cornet - who looked very cold sat alone in the stands in his holey jeans - there was very little goal threat from us in the Hammers game in particular.
Three games without scoring is always going to be a concerning run but, coming after we hit six goals in two home games against Brentford and Crystal Palace, the downturn has been particularly alarming.
Chris Wood’s form has been in the spotlight with the New Zealand striker hooked early against both Wolves and West Ham. I couldn't understand those decisions at all. Wood relies on the quality of balls up to him being sound and that hasn't been the case in recent games. He will never create something out of nothing in the same way as Cornet; very few players can.
Wood might be struggling but, without Cornet, he is the only available goalscorer in the squad. Should a chance - remember chances? - arrive to any of our strikers, it is Wood you would want to be on the spot. With one shot on target mustered in three straight games, not using Wood is odd.
Sidelining Wood (who has scored at least 10 league goals in four straight seasons since moving to Burnley) is even stranger when the other attackers are offering so little between them. While the combination of Matej Vydra and Jay Rodriguez somehow managed to burgle a late leveller at Chelsea, they don't look like repeating the trick.
Vydra and Wood actually looked to be a pairing with potential last season so it is hard to fathom why Dyche appears to be so reluctant to use that duo this time out. Behind Cornet, Vydra is our quickest forward (not hard tbh) and he gives us more variety in attack, even if he has a tendency to lack a cool head in front of goal.
Taking off Wood would only make sense if the tactics subsequently changed to a less direct style. But, after his withdrawal on Sunday, we continued to lump the ball in the general direction of where Wood usually is, which seems dumb to me.
To borrow a Dyche turn of phrase, it indicates a lack of 'clarity' around our collective thinking. That was also the case when Dyche summoned Brownhill, told him to sit back down for a bit, then brought him on a few minutes later, replacing Westwood. That change made even less sense with our entire attack dependent on Westwood, as Nate detailed. Vydra wants the ball played in behind and, with Westwood benched, we had nobody to feed him unless McNeil moved himself central.
Dyche is evidently hamstrung by the continued lack of options in his squad. I don't want to sound like a stuck record but chucking on Aaron Lennon as a last throw of the dice says it all. However, Dyche is used to working with a smaller squad - it actually seems to be his preference, despite the risks involved - and he simply has to find better solutions than he has so far.
If he can't, relegation might loom.
The Watford game is huge.
Podcasts and quiz question
With a game midweek, the next analysis show will be out post-Watford.
We have two quiz questions for you this week. Here’s the first one - listen to the pre-West Ham preview show for the answer:
Can you name the two players who have played for Burnley and West Ham who have scored goals against the Clarets for the Hammers since 2000?
And the pre-Watford preview show has the answer to this extra poser:
How many different Watford managers has Dyche faced as Burnley manager, home and away, since taking over at Turf Moor?
Birthdays and anniversaries
Birthdays this week include Wembley Wade, who is 43 tomorrow. Have a good one you bloody legend. Josh Brownhill will turn 26 on Sunday. Happy birthday JB.
It’s a shame we can’t play #OnThisDay more often as our last three games on December 13 have all been wins, most recently this 1-0 away to Arsenal:
Tweet of the week
Letters
A few messages about last week’s piece on McNeil, who struggled again on Sunday:
We’ve talked here before about other systems and I think a back three or a 4-3-3 are worth considering, but Dyche seems reluctant to move away from 4-4-2 now.
McNeil looks both tired and without any confidence at all to me, but Cara is right in noting his defensive work has improved a lot. The concern for me is that requiring McNeil to be both our main creative threat and also provide so much cover for Charlie Taylor is just too big an ask of him.
With McNeil lacking pace and unlikely to get much faster, working on his right foot is a must if he is to become truly elite, agreed.
If you have any views or feedback on this week's newsletter, just comment below.
Thought of the day
Fingers crossed for Connor Roberts, who is in hospital with a non-Covid illness.